In
recent years, I’ve come across Ahmadi Muslims referring to the Plague
at the turn of the 20th century India as a sign for the truth of
Ahmadiyyat. Using the Plague narrative in favour of Ahmadiyyat is not
new, but its mention does seem to be on the rise with apologists.

The claim of a fulfilled prophecy and a victory for Ahmadiyya Islam
is based on a belief which most devout Ahmadis hold. Namely, that
Ahmadis remained safe from the plague while non-Ahmadis were perishing.
This was allegedly in accordance with the prophetic statements of Mirza
Ghulam Ahmad regarding the Plague and the protection offered to sincere
believers in his Movement and Messiahship.

In this essay, I will argue that such a belief is not only untruthful, it is also remarkably insensitive.

In the course of being raised with beliefs which include the
superiority of their religion and their particular sect, Ahmadi Muslims
perhaps just ignore that pandemics, natural disasters, and other similar
crises almost always affect the most vulnerable people in society.

The Plague ravishing India in the early 1900s was no different. It
was responsible for much death and misery across India in the early
1900s.

There was a group of people who were disproportionately affected by
the plague in India. That much is true. However, their plight had
nothing to do with an affiliation or lack thereof with any New Religious
Movement (NRM). Who were these vulnerable people? They were the women
of India.

Dr. Sasha Tandon of the Panjab University Chandigarh reports in the publication "Epidemics in Punjab" (see the chapter, ‘Epidemics in Colonial Punjab’):

The incidence of epidemics was generally greater among women as
compared to men. The average mortality rate of the men per mille in the
Punjab from 1901 to 1920 was 5.85 while that of the women was 7.55...

The report from the Indian Census of 1911 provided reasons for why
India experienced such a high rate of female mortality. The report
states:

The conclusion arrived at was that it is due to the different habits
of the two sexes. Women spend much more time than men in their houses,
in which they sit most of the day. They generally go barefooted. They
sweep the floors and handle the grain for threshing or grinding. They
nurse persons suffering from plague; and, when death occurs in a house,
they assemble there for purposes of mourning and sit round the corpse.
They are thus much more exposed to infection through the rat-flea, which
attacks human beings when its natural host dies, and is now generally
recognized as the medium by which bubonic plague is chiefly spread.

Census of India, 1911 - Vol. I, Part I - Report. pp. 211-212

There are rational reasons why India has been historically devastated
with pandemics like malaria, cholera, smallpox, and the plague.

The prevalence of epidemics was attributed to social customs as well
as to poverty, insanitary conditions and unhealthy living. The colonial
administrators considered India as the abode of diseases. The plague was
understood as ‘a disease of filth, a disease of dirt and a disease of
poverty’. The British attributed the prevalence of diseases to the
‘peculiar sanitary habits of the Indians’. The houses of the natives
were considered ‘insanitary’ and ‘ideal homes’ for rats, mosquitoes and
diseases.

Dr. Sasha Tandon, Epidemics in Colonial Punjab, p. 220

When talking about the Plague in the Indian subcontinent, Ahmadis
tend not to see it as a natural calamity. They tend to overlook the
underlying factors behind the nature of how it spread. It does not
appear that they view the devastation with a scientific lens. Rather,
Ahmadis are often quick to shift the narrative. To them, it is a Sign of
God. A religious story—of success.

I would humbly request that questioning Ahmadis look into the reasons
behind the spread of the Plague in the early 1900s. I urge them to
investigate how and why impoverished and marginalised groups are the
ones who suffer the most in such times.

As far as those Ahmadis are concerned who wish to hold fast to the
narrative of religious victory, this essay will establish how the Indian
Plague of the early 1900s was anything but.

The Plague was neither a sign favouring Mirza Ghulam Ahmad’s claims
of divine revelation, nor was it a victory for Ahmadiyya Islam, the
Movement.

Recap

I request that readers see my previous post on the subject:

PLAGUE and COVID-19: The Devastation of Plague in Qadian and Ahmadiyya Community

There, I have referenced the ever changing narratives of Mirza Ghulam
Ahmad Sahib. Before going deeper into the thesis of this essay, it is
important to familiarise oneself with some of Mirza Sahib's statements.

• In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad declared, "whoever is a servant of God will not be afflicted with the plague” (Malfuzat V4, 16 Nov. 1902, p. 211) but then he later stated in 1907:
  
  
  • “When God’s wrath descends, the righteous are wrapped up with the wicked." (Malfuzat V9, 01 April 1907, p. 252)
• In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claimed that, "the righteous person will surely be saved” (Malfuzat V4, 25 Nov. 1902, p. 232) but then later narrated in 1904:
  
  
  • “Sometimes death is good for a person, because this way God
    Almighty saves him from future mistakes, so that his death does not end
    in disbelief.” (Malfuzat V7, 21 June 1904, p. 81)
• In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad declared that “Those who say
  that dying by plague is martyrdom do not know that the death by the
  plague is a divine punishment, however, the expression in a Hadith that
  it is martyrdom if a believer dies from plague is just Allah Almighty
  camouflaging (true nature of) the believer.” (Malfuzat V4, 28 Oct. 1902, p. 129) but then later stated in 1904 that:
  
  
  • "companions like Abu Ubaidah ibn al-Jarrah, who were dear to
    Hazrat Umar (may Allah be pleased with him) were martyred by the
    plague, there is no harm for ordinary believers to die from the plague.” (Malfuzat V6, 28 Feb. 1904, p. 373)
• In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad stated that, "if there is one
  pious person in the house, then God will save his whole house. Moreover,
  if he is truly pious, then he can also be the saviour of his
  neighbourhood" (Malfuzat V4, 25 Nov. 1902, p. 232) but then he later reported in 1904 that:
  
  
  • his own neighbour and other people in his neighbourhood died of the plague such that "screams were coming from all over our neighbourhood" (Malfuzat V7, 09 May 1904, p. 17)
• In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad announced, “Almighty God will
  guard Qadian against the scourge of plague so that people should
  recognise that this was so because the Messenger and Apostle of God
  lives in Qadian.” (Defence Against the Plague & A Criterion for the Elect of God, p. 12, published: April 1902) but then he later conveyed in a letter in 1905 that:
  
  
  • “The plague has spread rapidly in Qadian. Today, the editor
    of Al-Badr, Mian Muhammad Afzal’s son is fighting for his life. It is
    pneumonic plague. It appears as if he is on his last breaths. There is
    misery everywhere." (Maktubat Ahmad, V2, Letter no. 76, p. 286, Early 1905)
• In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claimed that God had promised to "safeguard all those who dwell within four walls of his home" (Noah’s Ark, p. 139, published: 5 Oct. 1902). Then later in 1904:
  
  
  • Mirza Ghulam Ahmad expelled those from his home who had become
    infected or were thought to have been infected with the plague. Mirza
    Ghulam Ahmad relayed, “Elder Ghausaan caught a fever. She has
    been expelled from the home. In my opinion, however, she doesn't have
    plague. She has been ousted as a precaution. Master Muhammad Din caught
    fever and also developed Lymph node swelling. He has also been expelled
    (from the home). Hence, some intensity of the plague is beginning in our
    area as well, but it is less than before.” (Maktubat Ahmad, V2, Letter no. 59, p. 267, 04 April 1904)
• In 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad asked for donations to expand his home in Qadian to give shelter to his followers. Announcement: “A
  Request for Donations For an Extension of ‘the House’ …Allah Exalted be
  His Glory has promised to especially safeguard all those who dwell
  within its four walls…Since there is a danger that the time of this
  plague is near and in accordance with the glad-tiding of divine
  revelation this home will serve as an ark in the storm of this plague,
  no one knows how many persons might benefit from the promise of this
  glad-tiding, therefore, this work is of immediate nature…” (Noah’s Ark, p. 139, published: 5 Oct. 1902) but then later in 1905:
  
  
  • Mirza Ghulam Ahmad asked his followers not to enter Qadian because of the active plague. Mirza Sahib relates, “The
    plague has spread rapidly in Qadian…There is misery everywhere. May God
    bless you. In this situation, in my opinion it is very appropriate that
    you do not visit until the end of April 1905.” (Maktubat Ahmad, V2, Letter no. 76, p. 286, Early 1905)

The atmosphere of misery in the Ahmadiyya Community more broadly, and
within Qadian more specifically, is reflected with utmost clarity by
the following statement where Mirza Ghulam Ahmad Sahib admonishes his
followers:

“I think it is necessary to state this much, that our Jama’at is
mistaken in some way. Probably they did not understand well what I said.
And that mistake and deception is that if a person from our Community
dies from the plague, they are treated with such cruelty and coldness
that no one is found even to pick their coffin…”

“It is a big mistake to leave a person like a dog, who is a Muslim and then is also a member of Ahmadiyya Jama’at.”

Malfuzat Vol. 7, Entry for 28 April 1905, pp. 349, 352

Whataboutism on the Plague

It is unfortunate that despite all the misery and devastation around
him—both within the Ahmadiyya Community and across his society at
large—Mirza Sahib was adamant to create new narratives to appease his
followers and make himself appear the winner.

Mirza Sahib’s statements were being proven false as time passed. He
was now being bombarded with a singular question by Ahmadis and
non-Ahmadis alike:

Why are Ahmadi Muslims dying of the Plague? (See: A few references)

On the 21st of August, 1904, we read in Malfoozat under the heading, "Plague and Ahmadis":

"PLAGUE AND AHMADIS" when the bigoted Maulvi Sahib asked about the
plague, why his (Mirza Ghulam Ahmad's) followers die and what is the
treatment for it, etc. So he (Mirza Ghulam Ahmad) said:

Have you also thought about the treatment of Eclipses? At this time,
the discussion is about the signs and not about the treatment. Yes, he
who fully accepts me will be safe. But I don't know who he is. I don't
see through anyone's heart.

طاعون اور احمدی۔ جب متعصب مولوی صاحب نے طاعون کا زکر کیا کہ آپ کے
مرید کیوں مرتے ہیں اور اس کا علاج کیا ہے وغیرہ وغیرہ۔ تو آپ نے
فرمایا:کسوف و خسوف کا علاج بھی کچھ سوچا ہے۔ اس وقت بحث تو نشا نوں کی ہے
نہ کہ علاج کی۔ ہاں جو کامل طور پر مجھے قبول کرتا ہے وہ ضرور محفوظ رہے
گا۔ لیکن مجھے اس کا علم نہیں کہ وہ کون ہے۔ میں کسی کہ سینہ کو چیر کر
نہیں دیکھتا۔

Malfoozat, Vol. 7, p. 141

In the May 16, 2022 post entitled, "When Plague Hits the Pious!" Reddit post author u/Master-Proposal-6182 provides a list of some of the close companions of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad who had died of the Plague.

I cannot imagine what devout families of some of these companions
must have suffered through after hearing that Mirza Ghulam Ahmad had put
the loyalty, devotion and belief of their beloved deceased relatives
into question. All because they had simply died of the Plague.

These companions included Hazrat Mian Karam Daad Sahib, the Sakhwani brothers, Hazrat Hafiz Moeenuddin Sahib, and many others.

Mirza Ghulam Ahmad statement deflecting from Ahmadis dying of the
plague to the topic of eclipses is a clear demonstration of the
whataboutism he was forced to adopt. It is a tradition Ahmadi Muslim
apologists continue to employ today.

The Maulvi Sahib critic in this case had rightfully pointed out that
Mirza Ghulam Ahmad's prophetic claim turned out to be false. Recall,
Mirza Sahib had claimed that his true followers would not die of the
Plague. Yet it was the critic who was subsequently labeled a bigot for voicing the observation that Ahmadis had been dying from the plague.

Mirza Sahib's response demonstrated his chronic whataboutism. Instead
of accepting the obvious reality of the devastating deaths of his
fellow Ahmadi Muslims; instead of accepting the flaw in his prior
claims, Mirza Sahib redirected the criticism towards where he believed
himself to be on stronger ground: the topic of the eclipses.

Regarding the eclipses as a sign for Mirza Ghulam Ahmad’s
truthfulness, it is another convoluted prophecy. Interested readers are
directed to Reddit author u/Q_Ahmad's comment on this matter. There, he explains why the eclipses do not substantiate Mirza Ghulam Ahmad’s claims of a sign fulfilled.

Who benefited from the Plague?

In the summer of 1904, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad was being pressed on his
claims about the Plague. He was being asked point blank why Ahmadi
Muslims were dying of the plague. On Aug 21, 1904, as shared above,
Mirza Sahib engaged in whataboutery to divert attention to the subject
of the sign of the eclipses.

A week later, on August 28, 1904, yet another extraordinary claim was made. Mirza Ghulam Ahmad stated:

Similarly, there is no doubt that the plague has come as a
punishment. And if some of the people from our (Ahmadiyya) community
have died of plague, it is not wise to make noise or object about it,
but one should consider who is harmed by the plague? And who benefited? I
can say with certainty that when the plague started, the number of my
Community was very small, but at this time, this Community has increased
to more than two lakhs (200,000) and this growth has also happened
because of the plague. The plague has increased my following and reduced
the adversaries.

اسی طرح پر اس میں شک نہیں کہ طاعون عذاب کی صورت میں نازل ہوا ہے۔ اور
اگر ہماری جماعت میں سے بعض آدمی طاعون سے فوت ہوئے ہیں تو اس پر شور مچانا
یا اعتراض کرنا دانشمندی نہیں ہے بلکہ غور طلب یہ امر قرار دینا چاہئے۔ کہ
طاعون سے نقصان کس کا ہوا۔ اور فائدہ کس کو پہنچا؟ میں یقیناً کہتا ہوں کہ
جب طاعون شروع ہوئی ہے اس وقت میری جماعت کی تعداد بھت تھوڑی تھی مگر اس
وقت دو لاکھ سے بھی یہ جماعت بڑھی ہوئی ہےاور یہ ترقی طاعون کے سبب سے بھی
ہوئی ہے۔ طاعون نے میری جماعت کو بڑھایا ہے اور مخالفوں کو گٹھایاہے۔

Malfoozat, V7, pp. 160-161 (28 August 1904)

Mirza Ghulam Ahmad asked: Who was harmed by the Plague?

The categorical answer to this question is the women of India.
They were harmed the most from this Plague. Poor Indian people who were
responsible for handling and burying the dead, were harmed most. Those
who lived in shabby dwellings and could not afford to use expensive
precautions which Mirza Ghulam Ahmad could afford, were harmed most.

It is interesting to note that if Mirza Ghulam Ahmad's opponents had
died, he and his propaganda machine would have been ready to advertise
the death of these opponents. However, even if none of his opponents
died, he had another narrative available to come to his rescue.

In Malfoozat, under the heading "Opponents ask, why aren't we getting
inflicted with the Plague?", this same question is asked. Mirza Ghulam
Ahmad responds with:

It is written in the Qur'an as well that those people used to ask for
punishment themselves. The wretched do not say, "Pray that we may be
guided." They only ask for the plague. Actually these people are
atheists.

قران میں بھی یہی لکھا ہے کہ وہ لوگ خود عذاب طلب کرتے تھے۔ کمبخت یہ
نہیں کہتے کہ دُعا کرو کہ ہمیں ہدایت ہو جائے طاعون ہی مانگتے ہیں۔ دراصل
یہ لوگ دہریہ ہیں۔

Malfoozat, V4, Entry for 29 November 1902, p.242

As a general rule, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad's every prophecy and claim
should be examined with an understanding of the various narratives Mirza
Sahib had in his back pocket to backtrack from his rhetorical and
unfulfilled claims. Seemingly without consequence.

In 1907, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad's youngest eight years old son, Mirza
Mubarak Ahmad died after a short bout of illness. At this time, the
Plague was still responsible for a lot of deaths in the Punjab province
of India.

We do not know the true cause of the death of Mirza Sahib’s son. How
many Ahmadi Muslims in total had died of the Plague will remain unknown
because getting infected and dying from the Plague as an Ahmadi Muslim
was itself a huge taboo. A taboo created by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad’s own
rhetoric on the subject.

Claim: Growth of the Ahmadiyya Movement

Did Mirza Ghulam Ahmad really benefit from the Plague by gaining more
followers? The answer to this question is manyfold. I’ll start with the
numbers. I’ll then follow that up with putting these numbers into
context.

In 1904, as introduced earlier, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad had claimed that
the number of his followers had increased from a few thousand to
two-hundred thousand (200,000).

Fast forward to 1908, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claimed to have a following of four-hundred thousand (400,000). This is documented in "A message of Peace". (See p. 26, of this 1908 publication). [screenshot reference]

There is absolutely no public record available that can confirm Mirza
Ghulam Ahmad's adherents to number 200,000 in 1904 or 400,000 in 1908.
However, a good way to close in on Mirza Ghulam Ahmad’s claims of growth
in his Community is by comparing his claim with the claim of his son,
made many years later. Recall, Mirza Sahib’s son, Mirza Basheer-ud-Din
Mahmud Ahmad, was the Community’s second Caliph.

On August 18, 1950, Mirza Basheer-ud-Din Mahmud Ahmad,
Khalifat-ul-Masih II (KMII) made the following statement in his Friday
Sermon on the subject of being truthful. This was forty-two years after
the claim of 400,000 Ahmadi Muslims was made by his father, Mirza Ghulam
Ahmad. Here’s what KMII said:

The truth is that although we have never conducted a census, however, in our estimation the number of Jama'at is around two hundred thousand. We don't see more than that.
It is possible that if outside Jama'ats are included, this number will
reach three hundred thousand. The limit beyond which there is absolutely
no room to go above is four hundred thousand.

سچی بات تو یہ ہےکہ گو ہم نے کبھی مردم شماری نہیں کرائی لیکن ہمارے
اندازہ میں جماعت کی تعداد دو لاکھ کے قریب ہے۔ اس سے زیادہ ہمیں نظر نہیں
آتی۔ ممکن ہے کہ اگر باہر کی جماعتوں کو ملا لیا جائے تو یہ تعداد تین لاکھ
تک پہنچ جائے۔ حد سے حد جس سے اوپر جانے کی کوئی گنجائش ہی نہیں وہ چار
لاکھ ہے۔

Khutbat-e-Mahmud, Vol. 31, Friday Sermons 1950, p. 135

Nearly half a century after the claim of four-hundred thousand, his
son is testifying that the number of Ahmadis is around two-hundred
thousand and certainly not over four-hundred thousand.

Let’s assume for argument’s sake, however, that the claim of a
maximum of 400,000 in 1950 was true. Was there no increase in the number
of Ahmadis in nearly four decades of Mirza Basheer-ud-Din's Khilafat?

In 1908, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claims the Community grew to 400,000 as a result of the Plague.

In 1950, Khalifa Mirza Basheer-ud-Din Mahmud Ahmad claimed that the Community was certainly no larger than 400,000.

The juxtaposition speaks for itself.

Did the Ahmadis who converted in the time of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad stop
bearing children at less than replacement? Recall, Mirza Basheer-ud-Din
Mahmud's Khilafat had stressed polygamy and encouraged members to have
more children to increase the size of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Jama'at.

In British India there was a regular census being conducted after
every ten years and the population of people from different faiths and
sects were being recorded. Why then, did we not see hundreds and
thousands of Ahmadis being recorded in the Indian census? Please do
check for yourselves if you believe Ahmadis showed up in the Census of
India at the time.

Note that since 1900, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad specifically named the
community of his followers "Firqa Ahmadiyya" for the purpose of the
Indian census. The advert announcing the name Firqa Ahmadiyya was
published on Nov 04, 1900. (see: Tareekh-e-Ahmadiyyat, V2, p. 153).

Claim: The Decline of Opponents

One of the main objectives of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad as the Messiah
foretold in Islamic Hadith literature was for him to "break the cross”.

In the year 1902, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad directly called out Christianity
and claimed that the Plague had arrived to dishonour Jesus. It was
during the early years of the Plague when Ahmadis were not much
affected. This is when Mirza Sahib claimed:

The noise made by the Christians was that Jesus raised the dead. And
he was God. This is why, the honor of God came into action and spread
the plague in the world, and saved our place so that the glory of the
Muhammadan Ummah is proven to the people, that a servant (Mirza Ghulam
Ahmad) of Ahmad (Muhammad), is honored. If Jesus resurrected the dead,
then now save the places of Christians from this horror (of Plague). At
this time, the divine zeal is in full swing. So that Jesus will be dishonoured. Who has been made God.

عیسائیوں نے جو شور مچایا تھا کہ عیسیٰ مردوں کو زندہ کرتا تھا۔ اور وہ
خدا تھا اس وسطے غیرت الٰہی نے جوش مارا کی دنیا میں طاعون پھیلائے اور
ہمارے مقام کو بچائے تاکہ لوگوں پر ثابت ہو جائےکہ امت محمدی کا کیا شان ہے
کہ احمد کہ ایک غلام کی اتنی عزت ہے۔ اگر عیسٰی مردوں کو زندہ کرتا تھا
تو اب عیسائیوں کے مقامات کو اس بلا سے بچائے۔ اس وقت غیرت الٰہی جوش میں
ہے۔ تاکہ عیسٰی کی کسرِشان ہو۔ جس کو خدا بنایا گیا ہے۔

Malfoozat, Vol.3, entry from April 17, 1902, p. 271

There were many claims of victory against Christianity that were
proclaimed by Mirza Sahib and his followers. Given this background and
the claim that Jesus would be dishonored, let’s explore how Christianity
fared during this same period of time in India.

We’ll start with statistical facts regarding the growth of
Christianity. It is Christianity that allegedly lost against Mirza
Sahib, "the breaker of the cross".

In the decade between 1881-1891, Christianity increased in India by
+22.6%. Mirza Ghulam Ahmad declared in 1891 that he was the “Promised
Messiah”—the Second Coming of Christ.

The decade after, between 1891-1901, Christianity flourished further still at the rate of +28.0%. An even faster pace than during the previous decade. This too, while Mirza Ghulam Ahmad was now on the scene.

Moving forward another decade still, to the period 1901-1911, we
arrive at the peak of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad’s ministry. We see Mirza Sahib
issuing prophecy after prophecy prior to his death in 1908. Did it make a
dent in the growth of Christianity?

The answer is a resounding no. Christianity in India increased by a
whopping +32.6%. With Mirza Ghulam Ahmad doing his level best, the rate
of growth of Christianity in India continued to increase!

Instead of declining during the life and ministry of the Islamic
Messiah, Christianity continued to prosper in India by leaps and bounds.

Figures from the Census of India for the growth of Christianity across the country:

Census Decades
Growth in Numbers
Variation Per Cent

1881-1891	1,862,634 to 2,284,380	+22.6% increase
1891-1901	2,284,380 to 2,923,241	+28.0% increase
1901-1911	2,923,241 to 3,876,203	+32.6% increase

Census of India, 1911, Vol. I, Part I - Report, CHAPTER IV.—RELIGION. p., 144

The general growth of Christianity in India, breathtaking as it is,
however, is not even the most impressive story from the period.

What’s truly remarkable are the figures for the success of Christianity in the Punjab. Moreso and especially during the height of the Plague!

Recall, Punjab was the center of Ahmadiyyat and the place from which Mirza Ghulam Ahmad founded and propagated Ahmadiyya Islam.

1891: According to the Indian Census of 1891 the number of Christians in Punjab was just 48,472.

1891-1901: After Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claimed to be
the second coming of Jesus Christ, the number of Christians in the
Punjab increased. Their population went from 48,472 to 66,591. That
surge represented a +37.4% increase in favour of Christianity for this
one decade alone.

1901-1911: These were the most active years for the
Plague in the Punjab. These years also proved to be the most remarkable
in terms of the growth for Christianity in the Punjab. From 66,591 in
1901, the Christian population in the Punjab jumped to 199,751 as
recorded in the Indian Census of 1911.

In comparison with the 1901 Census, this was a +200% increase in the
number of Christians in the Punjab. Yes, all of this in a single decade.

It is also very important to note that this was the highest recorded
increase in the Christian population as compared to any other province,
state, or agency in India during the 1901-1911 period.

It is a statistical fact that the growth of Christianity during the
Plague in Punjab was the highest recorded across India, dwarfing its own
impressive growth just a decade earlier.

Please pause for a moment and let that sink in.

Census of India figures for the growth of Christianity across the Punjab:

Census Year
Number of Christians in Punjab

1891	48,472
1901	66,591
1911	199,751

Census of India, 1911, Vol. I, Part I - Report, CHAPTER IV.—RELIGION. p., 144

Ahmadi Muslim apologists investigating these numbers will realize
that there is absolutely no evidence that the followers of Mirza Ghulam
Ahmad increased to 400,000 by 1908.

Evidence to the contrary, in fact, can be found from Ahmadiyya
sources. We need only look to statements four decades later from the
Second Khalifa of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community. That later claim puts
Mirza Ghulam Ahmad's own claim of 400,000 Ahmadi Muslims in 1908,
seriously into question. On the other hand, the growth of Christianity
is an established fact as documented in the Census of India.

Several factors played a role in British India’s rapid uptake of Christianity.

Social activities of Christian missions were directed towards
bringing about moral reforms in Indian society. These reforms helped
with the emancipation of individuals including women from age old
superstitions and other social evils such as widow burning or Sati, child marriage, untouchability, caste discrimination and the drowning of children in sacred rivers, to name a few..

Christian educational projects for girls served as a model for the
government and NGOs to establish schools for girls' education.

The terrible inadequacy of medical facilities in India compelled
Christian missions to start hospitals and dispensaries in cities and
villages. Hundreds and thousands of people were saved and restored to
normal health by hospitals set up by Church-affiliated organizations.

During the time when Mirza Ghulam Ahmad was collecting donations to
build and extend his own residential property in the name of providing
refuge from the Plague, Christian Missions in India were helping to
provide health care and elevate the living standard of Indians
nationwide.

As of 2011, the Census of India
reported the population of Christians at 27.8 million. There are far
more Christians in India alone than there are Ahmadi Muslims the world
over. Even with Pakistan and Bangladesh no longer a part of what was
India in Mirza Ghulam Ahmad’s time.

Today, 133 years after the establishment of Ahmadiyyat, there are not
more than a few thousand Ahmadi Muslims in India. Even in Pakistan,
where most Ahmadi Muslims migrated after the partition of 1947, the
number of Christians far exceeds the number of Ahmadi Muslims.

According to the 2017 Census
of Pakistan, the population of Christians is over 2.6 Million. The
population of Ahmadi Muslims in the same census is just 207,688.

Since 1984, the headquarters of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community has
been based in the United Kingdom, a Christian country. During the time
of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad, Christian Missions had converted thousands of
local Indians into Christianity. Contrast this with nearly four decades
of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community having its khalifa and its
headquarters in the UK. In the last four decades, the Ahmadiyya
Community has failed to convert even a few thousand local Christians in
the UK to Ahmadiyyat. Remember, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad and by extension, his
Movement after him, are meant to “break the cross”.

In recent years, following on the footsteps of Christianity, we see
that the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community has changed its style and approach.
Instead of actively pursuing a “break the cross” dictum, it tries to
operate more as a humanitarian organization.

This newer humanitarian incarnation of Ahmadiyyat conducts much
propaganda regarding its social work in order to collect money from its
believing flock (a subject for another time). Still, a social welfare
group is far better than a death prophesying “breaker of the cross”. The
Khalifa of Peace is a much better alternative to a Prophet of the
Plague.

Tools of Fear

I am not an advocate for Christianity, nor do I believe that Jesus
Christ was divine, was a healer, or that he brought the dead to life. I
am not one to claim that these alleged qualities of Christ brought
masses into the fold of Christianity during the time of the Plague in
Punjab. I’m certainly not one to claim that God helped Christians grow
in numbers despite the Plague as if it was some manifestation of the
divine or some manner of victory for Christianity.

Other than the humanitarian work, given Christianity’s success in the
period, however, it’s quite likely that a similar narrative to Mizra
Sahib’s was employed by enterprising Christian missionaries to grab the
attention of the masses.

Isn’t it mind boggling that during the Plague—a time of death and
misery where millions were dying and had died—the number of Christians
increased by 200% in Punjab in the 1901-1911 period?

Was God in cahoots with Christianity?

It was not through a rational assessment of the relative qualities of
any given religion that increased religiosity or choice of religion in
people (unless one believes that Christianity is superior to Ahmadiyya
Islam).

In the case of Ahmadiyya Islam, at least, it was the exploitation of
fear driven by false promises of deliverance from danger, if any
increase in numbers reported by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad can be believed, as
transient and short lived as such increases were. Recall, juxtaposing
the population figures from Mirza Ghulam Ahmad and his second successor
nearly half a century later, the growth in the Community’s total
population appears to have been flat.

The spiritual quality of religious converts gained through fear is tenuous at best. Even Mirza Ghulam Ahmad admitted the same:

Those who pledge allegiance in the days of plague are in a very
dangerous situation because only the fear of plague makes them enter
into pledge. When this fear goes away, then they will return to their
original state. So what is the value of their pledge in this situation?

طاعون کے ایام میں جو لوگ بعیت کرتے ہیں وہ سخت خطرناک حالت میں ہیں
کیونکہ صرف طاعون کا خوف اُن کو بعیت میں داخل کرتا ہے۔ جب یہ خوف جاتا رہا
تو پھر وہ اپنی پہلی حالت پر عود کر آویں گے۔ پس اس حالت میں اُن کی بعیت
کیا ہوئی؟

Malfoozat, Vol. 7, entry from May 04, 1904, p. 5

As far as growth claims are concerned, we can safely conclude that
there was absolutely no value to the pledges of allegiance received
during the events of the Plague in India. Pledges made during this
period to join the fold of Ahmadiyya Islam were made out of fear. They
were driven by false assurances.

It is quite possible that people who had converted to Ahmadiyyat
during the Plague witnessed other Ahmadi Muslims dying. Observing Mirza
Ghulam Ahmad's changing narratives, such people would have been more
inclined to leave the fold of Jamaat-e-Ahmadiyya.

Mirza Ghulam Ahmad's unsubstantiated claim that Ahmadiyyat grew and
that his Jama’at’s opponents reduced is evidently false. It’s
ill-informed at best, and a lie at worst.

Perhaps Mirza Sahib’s change in tone during the progression of the
Plague was just another distraction from the failing prophecy that his
true followers would be safe from such a calamity.

From population figures discussed earlier, both from the Census of
India and from the Ahmadiyya Muslim Jama’at itself, we see that
religious affiliation increased across the board but that it was
Christianity which had actually benefited. Christianity was undeniably
ascendant. Throughout this period, Christianity had substantially grown.

Religiosity in a Time of Chaos

The phenomenon of increasing religiosity can be understood through
science by examining how our biology works as a result of our evolution.
“Dual Process Theory” [link 1, link 2]
provides a deeper understanding of the topic. Here, however, I will
simply state some inescapable facts articulated by experts on the
subject.

People want to escape suffering, but if they can’t get out of it,
they want to find meaning. For some reason, religion seems to give
meaning to suffering – much more so than any secular ideal or belief
that we know of.

Ara Norenzayan, a social psychologist at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada

Source: Will religion ever disappear?

Providing meaning to one’s suffering might be comforting, but it does
not require that such explanations of meaning represent what is
actually true. In fact, this phenomenon and this very human need enables
charlatans to take advantage of people.

The idea is that at times of uncertainty, anything that gives at
least the illusion of control is going to be psychologically comforting.

Professor Chris French, Goldsmiths University

Source: Meet the young people who believe they’re communicating with the dead

This essay is not making the claim that Mirza Ghulam Ahmad didn’t
secure any adherents by employing his fear based narratives during the
Plague in India. He probably did experience some modest increase in
adherents. How many of these followers stuck around during and after the
Plague is, however, difficult to prove. We do know that religiosity in
the Punjab was increasing in these difficult times, as we would expect
it to. This fact is borne out by Census of India data.

Mirza Sahib claimed that his opponents decreased. However, as has
already been established, Christianity grew rapidly during the Plague.

The phenomenon of belief in the time of crisis, as Mirza Ghulam Ahmad
exploited, is captured well by Rober McCauley, who proclaimed:

Even if we lose sight of the Christian, Muslim and Hindu gods and all
the rest, superstitions and spiritualism will almost certainly still
prevail. More formal religious systems, meanwhile, would likely only be a
natural disaster or two away. As soon as we found ourselves
facing an ecological crisis, a global nuclear war or an impending comet
collision, the gods would emerge.

Robert McCauley, Director of the Center for Mind, Brain and CultureEmory University in Atlanta, Georgia

Source: Will religion ever disappear?

Conclusion

The Plague in India during Mirza Ghulam Ahmad’s ministry was also
known as the third plague pandemic. It started in China in 1855 when
Mirza Ghulam Ahmad was just 20 years old. It then continued in some form
for more than 50 years after his death.

What was God's purpose in starting this pandemic when Mirza Ghulam
Ahmad had not even announced his prophethood and messiahship? Mirza
Ghulam Ahmad’s claim of prophethood and of being a saviour from the
Plague did not even reach all of the people who died from this plague.
After Mirza Ghulam Ahmad’s death, people kept on dying from the Plague.
Why would God kill millions who didn’t even know that accepting Mirza
Ghulam Ahmad, allegedly, could have saved their life?

I don’t believe that one can simultaneously believe that their God killed millions of people from the Plague as a sign for
the Promised Messiah while in the other breath claim, “Love for All,
Hatred for None”. The Ahmadiyya Muslim Community, which today takes
pride in their catchy slogan of, “Love for All, Hatred for None” is
perhaps not aware that their founder had called the plague an “angel”
that was appointed to fulfill a specific task. Mirza Ghulam Ahmad
claimed that, “This plague is because of the vices and immoralities, and
my denial and mockery” (Malfoozat, Vol. 3, p. 192, entry for 27 Dec
1901).

To believe in and accept Mirza Ghulam Ahmad as one’s spiritual leader
is one thing. It’s quite another to believe in a ruthless God who
allegedly brought chaos into the world by killing approximately 15
million people with the Plague as a response to the denial of His
Messiah in the person of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad.

All of this death and misery just to convert a few thousand people from other belief systems to Ahmadiyya Islam?

Peddling the narrative that a pandemic is a divine sign and a
punishment diverts our collective attention away from finding solutions
which could actually mitigate such health crises. This is especially
true of people who claim to offer supernatural solutions. Such people
are no different from quack doctors and peer babas.

Mirza Ghulam Ahmad placed lives in danger by suggesting that those
who sincerely and firmly believed in him would be kept safe from a death
by the Plague. It is alarming how quickly Mirza Ghulam Ahmad shifted
from endangering his followers to bringing into question their
religiosity and devotion when they did start dying of the plague.

In the face of a pandemic, any narrative espoused from a position of
authority that shifts people’s focus away from real-world precautions
toward supernatural interventions is a disservice to humanity.

A person’s love for humanity does not leave room for belief in a
monstrous God nor does it leave room for belief in a claimant to
messengership who used the fear of death to gain what amounted to only a
few more followers.

Note: More posts to follow
in future on the so-called prophecy of the Plague to explore other
aspects. Please direct all the questions and criticism towards me. I
welcome questions in this regard so that I can explore the subject in
even greater depth. Special Thanks to u/ReasonOnFaith for reviewing/editing the article.